Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis − Input Database and Improved Methodology for Dip-Slip Earthquake Ruptures

​Fiia NURMINEN a soutenu sa thèse le 4 juillet 2022.

​

Earthquakes related hazard is not only due to surface shaking, but also related to permanent surface deformation that can have a significant destroying potential. Probabilistic Fault Displacement Hazard Analysis is a methodology to evaluate the surface rupturing relate hazard, developed for sites where the issue cannot be tackled by fault zone avoidance, but must be approached in probabilistic methods. This type of analysis is based on regression parameters which obtained from empirical datasets of historical earthquakes. This PhD project, executed in collaboration with University of Chieti, Italy, and IRSN, France, aimed at constructing of a robust database of surface faulting data of all kinematics, and developing methodological enhancements to the PFHDA approach especially regarding the regression parameters of distributed rupturing associated to dip-slip faults. This thesis describes the research project and its outcomes, and puts it into context of general scientific discussion around fault displacement hazard assessment explaining the enhancements done with respect to the previous approaches and providing some ideas for the future developments of the topic.