Radionuclide migration in forest ecosystems – results of a model validation study

G. Shaw (a), T , A. Venter(b), R. Avila(c), R. Bergman(d), A. Bulgakov(e), P. Calmon(f), S. Fesenko(g), M. Frissel(h), F. Goor(i), A. Konoplev(e), I. Linkov(j), S. Mamikhin(k), L. Moberg(l), A. Orlov(m), A. Rantavaara(n), S. Spiridonov(o) and Y. Thiry(i)

Journal of Environmental Radioactivity, Volume 84, Issue 2 , Pages 285-296

The primary objective of the IAEA's BIOMASS Forest Working Group (FWG) was to bring together experimental radioecologists and modellers to facilitate the exchange of information which could be used to improve our ability to understand and forecast radionuclide transfers within forests. This paper describes a blind model validation exercise which was conducted by the FWG to test nine models which members of the group had developed in response to the need to predict the fate of radiocaesium in forests in Europe after the Chernobyl accident. The outcomes and conclusions of this exercise are summarised. It was concluded that, as a group, the models are capable of providing an envelope of predictions which can be expected to enclose experimental data for radiocaesium contamination in forests over the time scale tested. However, the models are subject to varying degrees of conceptual uncertainty which gives rise to a very high degree of divergence between individual model predictions, particularly when forecasting edible mushroom contamination. Furthermore, the forecasting capability of the models over future decades currently remains untested.

a -Department of Environmental Science and Technology, Imperial College at Silwood Park, Ascot, SL5 7PY, UK
b- Enviros Culham Science Park, Abingdon, OX14 3DB, UK
c- Facilia AB, 16751 Bromma, Sweden
d- National Defence Research Establishment, Department of NBC Defence, S-90182 Umeå, Sweden
e- Institute of Experimental Meteorology, SPA “Typhoon”, 82 Lenin Street, Kaluga Region, RU 249020 Obninsk, Russian Federation
f- IRSN/DEI/SECRE/LME, Bâtiment 159 CE Cadarache, BP 3 13115 Saint-Paul-les-Durance cedex, France
g- IAEA, IAEA Laboratories, A-2444 Seibersdorf, Austria
h- Torenlaan 3, NL-6866-BS, Heelsum, The Netherlands
i- Belgium Nuclear Research Center (SCK/CEN), Foundation of Public Utility, Radioecology Section Boeretang 200, B-2400 Mol, Belgium
j- Cambridge Envitronmental Inc., 58 Charles Street, Cambridge, MA 02141, USA
k- Moscow State University, Radioecology Laboratory, Soil Science Faculty, Vorobyev's Hills, 119899 Moscow, Russian Federation
l- Swedish Radiation Protection Authority (SSI), S-171 16 Stockholm, Sweden
m- Polesskya Agro-forest-ameliorative Scientific Research Station, 262004 Zhitomir, Ukraine
n- Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), P.O. Box 14, Laippatie 4, FIN-00881, Helsinki, Finland
o- Russian Institute of Agricultural Radiology, Department of Radioecology, Kaluga Region, 249020 Obninsk, Russian Federation